THE NEW DEPRESSION (of 2008...etc.)???

Where to start...where to go with all these thoughts. Money woes in the U.S. economy abound, and they have had an effect on all the areas in which I have ever had experience: radio, music, transportation, travel, and other areas in which I have had peripheral involvement.

I really couldn't be more aware of what has been happening in broadcast radio, or in the music industry - Inside Music Media (see links on the side to this important column) has been on a "spot on" run lately. So --- where I would LIKE to refrain from making too many "ditto" columns for awhile --- it has me reading, thinking, deciding for myself what is or is not going on. More about radio at the end of this column...but, remember that radio is top of mind, so it will remain in the theme.

The headline for this column/blog is about "THE ANNOUNCEMENT" THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA has NOT made. The Treasury has not made this announcement - make your own conclusion as to why they have not disclosed the "real" economy we face. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has not made this announcement - he'd be hung out to dry and does not deserve this designation, for it is not his fault that this even needs to be said. All of the traders on Wall Street won't like this announcement, but unless someone at Edward Jones or AG Edwards/Wachovia reads this column, Wall Street will take a few months to come to terms with the factual evidence from mainstream America.

THE ECONOMY at the outset of 2008 is in a DEPRESSION. Actually, it may well have been in effect in the third or fourth quarter of 2007, but I didn't do my research on it then. In fact, I have NO EVIDENCE that the depression of 2008 is real --- yet. Unless you count the thousands of jobs which ceased to exist in the U.S. over the past several months, plus the debate over the economic stimulus package that has all sides claiming "this could have been better", or the continued discussion over the so-called mortgage "crisis".

Well, okay - THERE - I have made the announcement for the rest of them. Sure, I could be wrong. When 2015 rolls around, someone will come across this blog (assuming the internet and blogspot will still exist as we now know it) and realize that I made the announcement that all other parties did NOT want to make. The U.S. economy is in a DEPRESSION coming into 2008 - and it may continue well beyond the first quarter of this year.

As to why --- exploring the reasons will be slow to unfold, as economics is not my chosen field. Also, listening to Paul Harvey News and Comment today one would think that the economy was improving in the MINDS of Americans. So, IF I AM WRONG about the long-term effects of things...don't lose sleep over it...but I think the New Depression will last a year or two.

Having said that, here's the irony --- which you may somehow find ironic: I am a professional broadcaster announcing an economic condition while the National Association of Broadcasters is being led by a non-broadcaster (CEO/President David K. Rehr) who has an economics degree.

(Tongue in cheek, I continue:) I would rather things be reversed and the NAB were to hire me to lead the industry with which I am familiar and have him perhaps learn broadcasting by studying the economic conditions and appearing as a guest on the news and talk shows. But, perhaps, that would make too much sense.

Ahh...here's an idea (a bit more tongue in cheek, yet, maybe it would work) - David K. Rehr can move over to the RIAA and help them out with the problems that the recording industry is encountering with revenue. This "leader" has not done what many in the industry see as the inevitable - he has NOT explained to the largest of the group radio station owners - specifically the appropriately named consolidation leaders - that they should move quickly forward with THE LARGE SELL-OFF by pricing radio stations at levels which are consistent with the economy of 1979. In fact, they should start selling them at 1979 prices. Why? Because radio, as an industry, is depressed, too.

Now the radio industry consolidation groups (the ones who own too many to make a proper profit and operate fully-staffed stations) need to sell off those stations to stave off their own bankruptcies. Frankly, the new radio station owners - most of them small-business owners - would then (we would have to believe) listen to "broadcast professionals" who work for them in order for the "ship" to then right itself, slowly. But if they do, believe it or not, the economy will start to improve.

Am I claiming that radio operated properly will boost the economy? No. But if you are finally reading POSITIVE news across the country - that will not hurt the economy the way the news of the "downfall" of the (radio and other) industry has done so.
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Economic Wall Street reviewers (snake charmers) like Jim Cramer can always claim the nail is in the coffin in radio, but unless he or those like him are ACTUALLY IN RADIO (PLEASE...NOBODY but nobody can tell me his show was BEING IN RADIO --- I have known a lot of show hosts over the years who have SO LITTLE knowledge of the inner-workings of radio as an industry --- Jim Cramer was/is just another host and/or guest, not a broadcast professional) they should refrain from referring to "traditional radio" - because traditional radio OWNERS haven't existed for many years.

Note to Jim Cramer: RADIO is not finished as we know it.

Radio CONSOLIDATION is finished as we know it.

Maybe the economy of radio is not well...but...broadcast radio is not over.

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WHY am I picking on JIM CRAMER? Well, apparently he must not admit that he thinks he's "big people". Clearly, at the end of this transcript and the podcast, he deems his unclear comments and his strong opinion as being 'important'.

(A transcript of Jim Cramer on the WallSt Radio Confidential Broadcast: Cramer Radio Podcast. We pick it up, not pulling out of context - read and/or listen to the rest of the podcast and you'll see that I'm showing the juiciest part...)



JIM CRAMER: ...radio is finished as we know it. But it doesn't seem to matter to the people who are in radio. They...have always talked a big game, and they'll continue to talk a big game. One of the things that's really interesting about business (is) you can always talk a big game, and it isn't like anybody---like, I have a show where I call out the big game callers, and it's phenomenally popular with "people"...but everybody else wishes it would just go away...because...w-we don't want that---i-it's like when ESPN-ESPN was incredible [Disney-reported] (NOTE:*he mumbles, soitmaynotbeexact). Like ESPN, the reason, one of the reasons why - besides the fact that it's live - that people like ESPN coverage, is that they call people "bums". Wooll (sic), I mean...ya know, that's not "done in business"...because business is supposed to be --- you're s'posed to report. There's not allowed to be any analysis."

REPORTER: "It's prestigious."

JIM CRAMER: "Right. And I-I look at the radio people and I say 'you know, guys, don't - please don't try and get away with this.' But they do. And they doin' a great job of getting away with it."

REPORTER: "I love it. And it says nothing stronger than ego, including common sense..." (gets drowned out by...)

JIM CRAMER: "The guys who run radio..." (over top reporter)

REPORTER: "...concerning real money."

JIM CRAMER: "...well, the guys who run radio are these big people, and they always regard themselves as 'big people'...UM...eh-and...eh, like some of the home builders regard themselves as 'big people'...and...I laugh, because they're big in their own minds...but they always manage to get the reporters to believe."

REPORTER: "And the industry's shrinking, for a fact. Thank you for..." (again drowned out by...)

JIM CRAMER: "Well, there's nothing there. (claps his hands together)"

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I really would like to see a few comments now, especially on Jim Cramer...who probably lost money if (...IF?) he invested too highly in the 'big people' who run the consolidated radio companies. He is talking about radio owners - but he is simply not naming them. They are obvious names like Clear Channel and Citadel and Cumulus and - well, you know the list, just the mere fact that Jim Cramer doesn't want to say those names shows that he is not interested in the industry at all - just making himself the "profit prophet" who makes unjustified claims for AN ENTIRE INDUSTRY!

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Okay - Jim Cramer - here's your (I penned this word just for you, Jimbo) "theorhetorical" problem. I point out that this isn't the 1970s and RADIO is not the STEEL industry. The decline is there for several reasons, but mostly because:

CONSOLIDATION OCCURRED DUE TO POOR LEGISLATION AND BECAUSE OF THE REACTION ON YOUR BELOVED WALL STREET (um, Jim - you work for Wall Street) - and CONSOLIDATION COLLAPSED BECAUSE OF WHAT WALL STREET EXPECTED FROM AN INDUSTRY THAT IS NOT MODELED AFTER SOMETHING WALL STREET SHALL "EVER" UNDERSTAND!!!!!!!!!!!

Jim - other than announcing that radio is dead - do you have any SOLUTIONS?

Get back to us on that soon, Jim Cramer, or your credibility will be in limbo.

Me - I have no economic credibility. I don't have to answer to the CEO of a major company. Yet.